Statistical identification and prediction of the port oil pipeline system’s operation process and its reliability and risk evaluation

In the paper a Semi-markov processes are used to construct a general model of complex industrial systems’ operation processes. Main characteristics of this model are determined as well. In particular case, for a port oil pipeline transportation system, its operation states are defined, the relationships between them are fixed and particular model of its operation process is constructed and its main characteristics are determined. Further, the joint model of the system operation process and the system reliability is defined and applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system.