Stability of vessels in an ice-free Arctic

One consequence of the declining ice cover in the Arctic is increased areas of open seas. These new open sea areas lead to some challenging aspects related to ship stability. Longer fetch lengths, associated with build-up of larger waves followed by increased conditions for sea spray icing on vessels is one aspect. Open seas in combination with cold atmospheric temperatures is a prerequisite for polar low pressures to occur. Polar lows may represent an additional aspect of increased icing on vessels by heavy snow in addition to extensive sea spray ice accretion. Over the last decades, different formulas for prediction of sea spray ice accretion rate on ships were developed to form basis for ice accretion warnings. Some of these formulas seem to have certain limitations and appear to be conservative. Important limitations of some formulas are considerations regarding heat flux, relationship between wind and waves, and ice accretion related to Polar lows. This paper will take a closer look at the accuracy and the realism of different ice accretion formulas and, related to this aspect, we will also discuss whether ship officer candidates receive sufficient maritime education and training (MET) related to realistic ice accretion and ship icing aspects.