Modelowanie rozwoju gospodarki lokalnej w długim okresie. Studium południowo-zachodniej Wielkopolski

This paper seeks to determine long-term development prospects of the economy of south-western Wielkopolska on the assumption that this area will not be given to opencast brown-coal mining. The results obtained will allow confronting such a development variant with one involving mining and power engineering. In the implementation of the research goal, use was made of economic growth models. Apart from the four neoclassical ones, a model from the field of non-linear systems dynamics was employed to attenuate the critically assessed properties of the neoclassical models. The modelling embraced the period 2012–2050. In the research emphasis was put on the provability of long-term forecasts of the development of a local economy. Provisional computation experiments suggested that the area under examination is in little open for the surroundings. This suggestion was then confirmed in model 2. Little openness for the surroundings allows for approach the area as a closed system. Hence, it is also justified to apply macroeconomic models in the examination. The source information – inputs to the models – came from publications of the Central Statistical Office and the Local Data Bank. However, at the level of communes those sources turned out to be insufficient. It was necessary to estimate surrogate variables on the basis of data concerning the Leszno subregion and Gostyń and Rawicz poviats. It was assumed that Poland’s accession to the European Union marked the start of a new long-term cycle. In arriving at the solutions to the models, solid IT work was done. The following results were obtained. 1. The pattern of growth in the local product and the values of other features were established for the 2012–2050 simulation period. 2. On the basis of the information generated, three variants of the long-term development of the study area were determined: (a) one in which the development curve was close to a parabola in shape, (b) a pulsating variant in which the development curve had variable dynamics, and (c) a variant of development intended to reach a steady state. 3. The results obtained allowed making an analogy to the theory of economic development cycles. Model 1 showed an analogy to the Kondratiev type of a long-term cycle (39 years, but without a suggestion of a final stage); model 3 – an analogy to medium-term Juglar cycles (of roughly eight years); and model 5 – an analogy to weak three-year Kitchin cycles, without deviations from dynamic equilibrium states. 4. In creating the potentials of the study area – incomes, number of persons employed, fixed assets, and the remaining variables examined in the research – the decisive role is played by endogenous factors. The degree of openness of its economy to the influence of the surrounding towns is of little signifi cance. Relatively the greatest effect is exerted by Poznań and the towns closest to the study area: Gostyń, Rawicz, and Leszno. 5. Normalised potentials of the features of the study area suggest the dependence of the local income on social order. 6. The increase in the value of fi xed assets exceeds the increase in the number of persons employed, which agrees with the hypothesis that the technological instrumentation of labour tends to grow with economic progress.