Study of the Accuracy of Methane Concentration Forecasts in the Area of Longwall Outlet B-3 in Seam 407/1 in KWK “Borynia-Zofiówka” Ruch Zofiówka

In the presented publication, an ex post forecast of methane concentration at the airway outlet was carried out on the basis of equations previously developed and repeatedly tested by H. Badura and its errors were calculated. This forecast was considered as a reference level. Next, using the same forecast equations, the forecasting of methane concentration at the sensor location up to 10 m in front of the longwall face and at the longwall outlet was carried out, followed by the analysis of forecast errors. Since the measurement of methane concentrations in the locations under consideration differed, the results of forecasts also differed. Therefore, in order to assess the accuracy of forecasts, their absolute and relative errors were calculated and then compared with the forecast errors at the airway outlet. The analysis of errors showed that there are differences in forecast accuracy and it is advisable to develop new forecast equations mainly for the longwall outlet, but also for the location of methane concentration sensor installed in the airway up to 10 m in front of the longwall.