Quantitative safety analysis of train control system based on statistical model checking

With the rapid development of communication technology, the Train-centric Communication-based Train Control (TcCBTC) system adopting the train-train communication mode to reduce the transmission link of control information, will become the direction of urban rail transit field development. At present, TcCBTC system is in the stage of key technology research and prototype development. Uncertain behavior in the process of system operation may lead to operation accidents. Therefore, before the system is put into use, it must undergo strict testing and security verification to ensure the safe and efficient operation of the system. In the paper, the formal modeling and quantitative analysis of train tracking operation under moving block are carried out. Firstly, the structure of TcCBTC system and the train tracking interval control strategy under moving block conditions are analyzed. The subsystem involved in train tracking and the uncertain factors in system operation are determined. Then, based on the Stochastic Hybrid Automata (SHA), a network of SHA model of train dynamics model, communication components and on-board controller in the process of train tracking is established, which can formally describe the uncertain environment in the process of system operation. UPPAAL-SMC is used to simulate the change curve of train position and speed during tracking, it is verified that the model meets the safety requirements in static environment. Finally, taking Statistical Model Checking (SMC) as the basis of safety analysis, the probability of train collision in uncertain environment is calculated. The results show that after accurately modeling the train tracking operation control mechanism through network of SHA, the SMC method can accurately calculate the probability of train rearend collision, which proves that the method has strong feasibility and effectiveness. Formal modeling and analysis of safety-critical system is very important, which enables designers to grasp the hidden dangers of the system in the design stage and safety evaluation stage of train control system, and further provides theoretical reference for the subsequent TcCBTC system design and development, practical application and related specification improvement.