DETERMINANTS OF THE DEMAND FOR INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IN UKRAINE

This study investigates the demand for international reserves in Ukraine and its structural change in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis in the context of a univariate error correction model (ECM). We find a time-invariant demand for international reserves in the short-run, with the inverse relationship with the volatility of international transactions, exchange rate depreciation and the excessive money stock and the positive link to imports and crisis developments. However, the long-term relationships are not stable over time, except for the effects of the money disequilibrium and crisis disturbances. The exchange rate depreciation and electoral cycle contribute to a depletion of reserves during the post-crisis period only. The adjustment of actual reserves to their long-run relationships is quite rapid.