Conceptual Bases, Principles And Scenarios Of The Modelling Of Environmental Safety In The System Of Sustainable Development

The scientific study is devoted to the development of conceptual bases, principles and scenario of the modelling of environmental safety in the system of sustainable development. The study considers artificiality, structural instability, quantifiability and duality of environmental safety. Factor and time components of safety determined according to the modified stochastic approach are also disclosed. They interpret the dependence of the environmental competitiveness of the region on the level of environmental hazard (component by component), innovation and investment activity aimed at improving the state of the environment. The authors of the paper argue that safety modelling, in view of institutional transformations (or responses), characterizes the level of response to challenges, taking into account the analysis of environmental safety issues in the system of sustainable development, the state of legal mechanisms, the struggle against threats and risks, etc. In the light of the aforementioned, an econometric model of the period and change in the dependence of the ecological competitiveness of the territory on the level of environmental hazard, innovation and investment activities aimed at improving the state of the environment is developed. The obtained results of the modelling, based on modified stochastic approach using real information that quantitatively reflects the features of such processes, prove a significant influence of genetic factors on competitiveness.