Characteristics and inter-annual changes in temperature, salinity and density distribution in the Gulf of Riga

Available CTD profiles from the Gulf of Riga (May—August, 1993—2012) were analyzed to study inter-annual and long-term changes in temperature, salinity and density in relation to river runoff and atmospheric forcing (e.g. Baltic Sea Index). To describe temporal changes in vertical stratification, the upper mixed layer (UML) and deep layer (DL) parameters were estimated. On average the UML depth increases from 8.7 m in May to 9.0, 11.5 and 13.7 m in June, July and August, respectively, and the UML temperature increases from 8.08C to 12.5, 18.7 and 18.68C (May, June, July and August) while the UML salinity increases from 4.90 g kg1 to 5.14, 5.28 and 5.38 g kg1, respectively. High correlation (r = 0.82) was found between the inter-annual changes in river runoff (spring) and mean salinity in the UML in August as well as between DL mean salinity (r = 0.88) and density (r = 0.84) in the Irbe Strait and DL mean salinity and density in the Gulf of Riga. Inter-annual changes in the UML depth as well as in DL salinity and density had a significant correlation with the changes in Baltic Sea Index. The strongest stratification (August) can be observed in the years with the highest UML temperature and the highest river run-off in spring. We suggest that the predicted increase in water temperature and changes in river run-off due to the climate change would result in faster development of the seasonal thermocline in spring and stronger vertical stratification in summer.