Influence of wind climate changes on the mean sea level and current regime in the coastal waters of West Estonia, Baltic Sea

The response of semi-realistic wind speed increase scenarios to the mean sea level and current regime of semi-enclosed sub-basins in the Baltic Sea is studied with a 2D hydrodynamic model. According to the model output of spatial mean sea levels, an increase in the westerly wind component by 2 m s−1 leads, for example, to a mean sea level rise of up to 3 cm in windward locations in the study area. The sea level change patterns depend on the wind scenario and coastline configuration. The increases in wind speed considered here also lead to enhanced water exchange through the straits, strengthening of the basin-scale circulation, enhancement of up- and downwelling, and increased bottom stresses near coasts.