Bałtycka „zimna wojna”. Możliwe reakcje NATO i UE na rosyjską aktywność militarną na akwenie bałtyckim.

Baltic Sea, as an area of strategic importance for Russia’s policy toward Europe, has become a place of showcase of Russia’s military might. Its primary purpose is to show the international community the level of determination Russian authorities express to make national interests of the Federation included in the global politics. The number of incidents which cannot be a ground for military action on a larger scale – even according to Russian conventions – requires a politico-military response by regional supranational organizations. The response should take the form of smart-power strategies and the formula of military involvement must go beyond purely defensive action in response to enemy action. Hence, it is necessary to determine the scope of comprehensive EU and NATO operations (due to the need to protect the territorial sovereignty of Sweden and Finland) to offset the forms of Russian incidental activities in a way that does not elevate political tension in the region. Such a reaction is possible through effective impact on forms of activities on the waters of the Baltic Sea, which are important for Russia, notably shipping. The European Union, and the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) in particular, has appropriate instruments to create an effective impact. On the other hand, the role of the North Atlantic Treaty should be to prepare and conduct systematic and comprehensive operations which limit the possibility of encroaching on the treaty territory and protect the member states against Russia applying instruments of hybrid war.