The influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria

Aim/purpose – The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria. The study was borne out of the curiosity to reexamine the immediate cause of the alarming rate of inflation in Nigeria which is adversely affecting the general welfare of Nigerian populace. Design/methodology/approach – The study employed co-integration test and error correction approach on annual time series data spanning from 1970 to 2016 to ascertain both the long run and short run dynamics relationship among the variables under consideration. Findings – The results showed that money supply does not considerably influence inflation both in the long and short run possibly because the country is in recession. The error correction model has the correct sign of negative and it is significant meaning that about 21% of the errors are corrected yearly. The Granger causality outcome demonstrates that, there is no causality between money supply and inflation in Nigeria within the study period and vice-versa. Research implications/limitations – The implication of this is often that there are different economic conditions which are key determinant of inflation in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should diversify the economy, minimise importation by encouraging local production of products and services. The Central Bank of Nigeria should guarantee an exchange rate policy that is essentially determined by the state of the economy and not by speculators being a net importation economy. Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria should look inwards into the current interest rate and see how it can be regulated in such a way that will encourage private and foreign investors to be able to invest in the country. This in turn, successively increases income, infrastructure development and economic growth at large. Originality/value/contribution – This paper has been able to confirm that money supply is not a key factor that trigger up inflation in Nigeria.