Analysis of the Situation in Ukraine in Spring 2014

In the article the author presents his analysis of the current political events in Ukraine, beginning with the origin of the Euromajdan and the mistakes of president Yanukowych that eventually led to his removal. The Ukrainian society is depicted with strong emphasis on the high level of political awareness that is characteristic of that society and their determination to reach their goals, as well as their political and economic aspirations. According to the author, the Ukrainian-Russian war started on February 28, 2014 when unidentified troops began occupation of administrative buildings in Crimea and the development of this conflict will bring severe consequences for both countries. Furthermore, the possible reasons why Putin chose the Crimea as an arena of his political pursuits are provided, as well as his minimum, maximum and interval targets concerning Ukraine. The author also maintains that the West and its actions or lack thereof is crucial for Ukraine; he notices that the demands made by the Western side are ignored, but he sees them not as “empty words” but announcements of future political events. He believes that the Western countries will take action in two ways: they will introduce immediate symbolic sanctions, as well as long-term sanctions aimed to prevent violating international law in the future. The article also presents the author’s prediction concerning the future actions of the Western states and the likelihood of direct NATO intervention. Additionally, the author considers the situation in Ukraine also from the perspective of Poland.