Zastosowanie modelu ryzyka uszkodzenia drzewostanu przez wiatr do oceny prawdopodobieństwa lokalizacji szkód w lasach Regionalnej Dyrekcji Lasów Państwowych w Białymstoku

In June 2016, a hurricane damaged the forests of the Regional Directorate of the State Forests in Białystok (eastern Poland), resulting in the removal of approximately 1.9 million cubic meters of wind−fallen and wind−broken trees and deadwood by the end of 2018. The research material was obtained from the database of the State Forests Information System and used to assess the functioning of the wind damage risk model. The wind damage risk model determines the value of damage risk factor Wr for each stand ranging from 0 to 3; a higher value indicates a higher risk of damage to the stand. The damage risk factor allowed to create six damage risk classes, with a width of 0.5 each and to assign individual stands of the forest district to one of the classes. The areal share of damaged stands was calculated for each class. In 2015, i.e. before the hurricane, the share of stands in the highest damage risk class VI ranged from 0.1% to 3.5%. After the hurricane in 2016, the areal share of damaged stands was calculated for each class, the largest share (the largest damage) being in class VI, while the share of the most damaged stands were found in the following forest districts: Dojlidy – 71%, Supraśl – 79% and Żednia – 87%. In 9 other forest districts, the area of damaged stands in class VI also exceeded 70%. The wind damage risk model for the stand presented in the paper allows identifying stands where damage is very likely to occur, when the wind comes. This may limit the level of wind damage through, in the first place, the rebuilding of stands classified to the highest wind damage risk factor class.